Polling: April 9, 2026

Puducherry 2026 Assembly Election AI Prediction

Built using multi-model election intelligence system.
1 State · 30 seats · 9.44 Lakh voters

Seat Predictions

NDA

14 – 18

SPA

11 – 15

TVK+

1 – 4

Others

0 – 2

Projected Winners

NDA · National Democratic Alliance

AINRC + BJP + AIADMK + LJK

Led by CM N. Rangasamy · 62% preferred CM

~15

Seats

35%

Vote Share

Majority

SPA · Secular Progressive Alliance

Congress + DMK

Led by V. Vaithilingam · 5 friendly contests hurt

~13

Seats

31%

Vote Share

DMK Wins

TVK + NMK · Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam

Actor Vijay's party · 28 + 2 seats

Major spoiler · Splits opposition in 14+ seats

Seats

17%

Vote Share

14+

Spoiler Seats

Confidence Breakdown

Safe 5

Lean 14

Toss-up 11

NDA

4 Safe · 8 Lean · 3 Toss

SPA

1 Safe · 6 Lean · 6 Toss

TVK+

0 Safe · 0 Lean · 2 Toss

Predicted Vote Share

35%

31%

17%

NDA 34–36%

SPA 30–32%

TVK+ 16–18%

Others 14–20%

Source: People's Pulse pre-poll survey (n=2,000, March 16–23, 2026)

Election Scenarios

🟠 NDA Majority~55%

TVK splits anti-incumbency vote in 12+ seats. NDA wins 15–18, Rangasamy returns as CM for a record 4th term. BJP holds 5–7 ministerial berths.

⚖️ Hung Assembly~30%

NDA wins 13–15, SPA 12–14, TVK 1–3. Post-poll horse-trading begins. TVK/Independents become kingmakers. Nominated MLAs may tip the balance.

🔵 SPA Majority~15%

Anti-incumbency wave exceeds expectations. TVK underperforms at 12–14%. SPA consolidation delivers 16+ seats. Vaithilingam becomes CM.

Methodology

Consensus Model

Predictions are synthesized from 3 independent analyses using: People's Pulse pre-poll survey (n=2,000, March 16–23, 2026), historical results from 2001–2021, candidate profiling via ADR/MyNeta affidavits, caste arithmetic, alliance coherence metrics, and TVK spoiler-effect modeling. Vote shares shown are weighted averages across models. Competitiveness ratings factor in 2021 margins and multi-cornered dynamics.

Althena.AI

A USA-based Data Analytics & Artificial Intelligence company.

Data synthesized from People's Pulse, ADR/MyNeta, CEO Puducherry, and independent analytical models.
Predictions are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees. Results: May 4, 2026.

Disclaimer: Candidate names are sourced from official party lists, ECI filings, and verified news reports. Some names may contain minor spelling variations or errors. If you notice any inaccuracies, please report them to help us improve. This is an AI-generated forecast and should not be treated as an official election result or endorsement of any candidate or party.

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