Kerala 2026 is in the books. Of the 14 seats we marked as "Safe" — our highest confidence tier — 13 were called correctly. Here's the full scorecard.
UDF Government Predicted
BJP Breakthrough Called
11 of 13 Marquee Battles
The Big Picture
We called the wave.
Three calls the model led with — and got right.
Headline call
UDF forms government
We predicted UDF as the #1 alliance with ~70 seats. Actual: UDF 100, LDF 37, NDA 3. We called the direction.
Top scenario won
"UDF Majority" @ 50%
Our most-weighted scenario was a UDF Majority at ~50% probability. Of four scenarios on the page, the highest-probability one is what played out.
BJP opens account
Nemom & Kazhakkoottam
Both flagged as NDA Toss-up calls. Both delivered: Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom and V. Muraleedharan in Kazhakkoottam. Predicted exactly.
Highest Confidence Tier
Safe calls: 13 of 14 correct.
Every prediction tagged "Safe" was a high-conviction call. They held.
13 / 14
Safe Calls Correct
Each cell = one Safe-tier call. Green = correct alliance call. Grey = miss.
12
Dharmadom
Predicted Pinarayi Vijayan / LDF · Won as predicted
33
Kondotty
Predicted T.P. Ashrafali / IUML (UDF) · Won
34
Eranad
Predicted P.K. Basheer / IUML (UDF) · Won
37
Manjeri
Predicted M. Rahmathulla / IUML (UDF) · Won
38
Perinthalmanna
Predicted Najeeb Kanthapuram / IUML (UDF) · Won
39
Mankada
Predicted Manjalamkuzhi Ali / IUML (UDF) · Won
40
Malappuram
Predicted P.K. Kunhalikutty / IUML (UDF) · Won
41
Vengara
Predicted K.M. Shaji / IUML (UDF) · Won
42
Vallikkunnu
Predicted T.V. Ibrahim / IUML (UDF) · Won
43
Tirurangadi
Predicted IUML stronghold · P.M.A. Sameer / IUML won
45
Tirur
Predicted Kurukkoli Moideen / IUML (UDF) · Won
46
Kottakkal
Predicted Abid Hussain Thangal / IUML (UDF) · Won
98
Puthuppally
Predicted Chandy Oommen / INC (UDF) · Won
8
Taliparamba
Predicted CPI(M) hold · Independent T.K. Govindan flipped it
Marquee Battles
11 of 13 ⭐ contests called right.
The high-profile constituency-level contests we flagged. Pinarayi, Chandy Oommen, Satheesan, Kunhalikutty, Chandrasekhar — all where we said.
Dharmadom · CM's seat
Predicted: Pinarayi Vijayan (LDF) · Safe
Actual: Pinarayi Vijayan / CPI(M) ✓
Hit
Puthuppally · Oommen Chandy legacy
Predicted: Chandy Oommen (UDF) · Safe
Actual: Chandy Oommen / INC ✓
Hit
Malappuram · IUML supremo
Predicted: P.K. Kunhalikutty (UDF) · Safe
Actual: P.K. Kunhalikutty / IUML ✓
Hit
Paravur · Opposition Leader
Predicted: V.D. Satheesan (UDF) · Lean
Actual: V.D. Satheesan / INC ✓
Hit
Nemom · BJP marquee
Predicted: Rajeev Chandrasekhar (NDA) · Toss-up
Actual: Rajeev Chandrasekhar / BJP ✓
Hit
Kazhakkoottam · Tech corridor
Predicted: V. Muraleedharan (NDA) · Toss-up
Actual: V. Muraleedharan / BJP ✓
Hit
Pala · Syrian Christian heartland
Predicted: Mani C. Kappan (UDF) · Lean
Actual: Mani C. Kappan / Independent (UDF-aligned) ✓
Hit
Haripad · Chennithala stronghold
Predicted: Ramesh Chennithala (UDF) · Lean
Actual: Ramesh Chennithala / INC ✓
Hit
Beypore · Riyas vs Anvar
Predicted: Muhammad Riyas (LDF) · Toss-up
Actual: P.A. Mohamed Riyas / CPI(M) ✓
Hit
Palakkad · Tri-polar test
Predicted: Ramesh Pisharody (UDF) · Toss-up
Actual: Ramesh Pisharody / INC ✓
Hit
Thiruvananthapuram · Capital city
Predicted: C.P. John (UDF) · Toss-up
Actual: C.P. John / CMP-KSC (UDF) ✓
Hit
Thrissur · Suresh Gopi halo
Predicted: Padmaja Venugopal (NDA) · Toss-up
Actual: Rajan J. Pallan / INC (UDF flipped it)
Miss
Vattiyoorkavu · Urban Nair belt
Predicted: R. Sreelekha (NDA) · Toss-up
Actual: K. Muraleedharan / INC (UDF flipped it)
Miss
Credible Intervals
When we set narrow ranges, we hit them.
Our 90% credible intervals for the smaller alliances landed dead-on. (UDF and LDF totals fell outside their ranges — we underestimated the size of the wave.)
NDA seats
In range ✓
Predicted 2 – 10Actual: 3
Others / Independents
In range ✓
Predicted 0 – 3Actual: 0 (per official party-wise count)
Alliance-Level Accuracy
When we said UDF, we were right ~87% of the time.
The model's UDF predictions were unusually disciplined.
61 / 70
UDF predictions correct
Of the 70 seats we called for UDF, around 61 went UDF. That includes every single Safe-tier UDF call (12 of 12) and the overwhelming majority of Lean-UDF and Toss-up-UDF calls. The miss rate was concentrated in mid-Travancore tossups where actual margins flipped LDF or independent.
Geographic Thesis
"NDA's only realistic wins lie in the Travancore Nair-Ezhava belt."
From our published methodology. That's exactly where they landed.
Kazhakkoottam — V. Muraleedharan / BJP Predicted as NDA Toss-up with the line "Former Union Minister targets tech-hub". Result: BJP win.
The third NDA seat — Chathannoor, where B.B. Gopakumar (BJP) flipped it — was an Ezhava-belt surprise we missed. But the geography of the breakthrough matched our thesis exactly: all three BJP wins came in southern Travancore, not Thrissur, not Malabar.
The Underlying Signals
Every key signal we cited played out.
From our published methodology, with hindsight.
"UDF swept 18/20 LS seats — tailwind into 2026." Confirmed and amplified. The 2024 LS pattern translated directly to assembly seats.
"Christian belt drift back to UDF from KC(M)." Confirmed across Kottayam-Pathanamthitta-Idukki: Pala, Kanjirappally, Adoor, Aranmula, Thiruvalla — all flipped to or held by UDF.
"99 new UDF candidates energise the ground game." The new-face strategy delivered. UDF's gain over our prediction came largely from these fresh nominations breaking through.
"NDA crossed 19% LS vote share — BJP breakthrough at TVM." Both flagged TVM seats (Nemom, Kazhakkoottam) delivered as BJP wins.
"Tri-polar dynamics strongest in TVM, Thrissur, Ernakulam." Validated — these were the only pockets where 3-way vote splits materially affected outcomes.
Where The Model Missed
Honest about the gaps.
Credibility means owning the misses, not just the hits.
Three structural gaps
1. North Kozhikode wave was bigger than modeled. Ten LDF-call seats (Kuttiady, Nadapuram, Quilandy, Perambra, Balussery, Elathur, Kozhikode South, Kunnamangalam, Koduvally, Thiruvambady) all flipped UDF. The 2024 LS pattern was a stronger signal than we weighted.
2. LDF collapse magnitude was under-priced. We predicted ~64 LDF seats; actual was 37. We over-credited CPI(M)'s cadre resilience and treated too many sitting MLAs as "Lean LDF" rather than "Toss-up".
3. Suresh Gopi halo for Thrissur didn't replicate. The single most prominent NDA call we got wrong — Padmaja Venugopal lost to INC's Rajan J. Pallan. The 2024 LS Thrissur win was personality-specific, not structural.
Explore Other States
Check our predictions for other 2026 elections.
Same multi-model approach, applied across South India.
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Accuracy Report