Called Right · ECI Verified · May 4, 2026

We said

NDA.

The voters agreed.

Three weeks before a single vote was cast, our multi-model AI consensus projected an NDA majority in Puducherry with N. Rangasamy returning as Chief Minister. On May 4, the Election Commission confirmed it — squarely inside our predicted seat range.

VERDICT × VOTEMATRIX · Puducherry 2026 · 30 seats · Polled April 9 · Counted May 4

The Call

Predicted NDA Majority. Delivered NDA Majority. Three weeks early. Within range.

NDA Seats

Predicted 14–18

Actual seats — within our predicted range. Majority confirmed.

TVK+ Seats

Predicted 1–4

Vijay's party plus NMK landed squarely inside our band.

Top Scenario

~55% probability

NDA

"NDA Majority" was our highest-probability path. It materialized.

Three weeks before polling, we published three scenarios with explicit probabilities. The one we ranked highest is the one that played out — that's the bar that matters in forecasting.

🟠 NDA Majority ~55%

TVK splits anti-incumbency vote. NDA wins 14–18, Rangasamy returns as CM for a record 4th term.

What happened

⚖️ Hung Assembly ~30%

NDA 13–15, SPA 12–14. Post-poll horse-trading. TVK as kingmaker.

🔵 SPA Majority ~15%

Anti-incumbency wave exceeds expectations. Vaithilingam becomes CM.

#9 · MARQUEE

Thattanchavady

Called NDA N. Rangasamy

Won NDA ✓ N. Rangasamy

"CM vs former CM & sitting MP. Rangasamy's home turf since 1991."

#16 · TVK STRONGHOLD

Orleampeth

Called TVK+ G. Nehru Kuppusamy

Won TVK+ ✓ G. Nehru (NYMK)

"NMK leader's personal fiefdom transcends party — TVK alliance's safest seat."

#27 · KARAIKAL

Karaikal South

Called SPA A.M.H. Nazeem

Won SPA ✓ A.M.H. Nazeem

"DMK veteran's massive cross-community appeal in a Muslim-majority seat."

#30 · ENCLAVE

Yanam

Called NDA Malladi Krishna Rao

Won NDA ✓ Malladi Krishna Rao

"Krishna Rao's 20-year fiefdom. No TVK/NTK factor. NDA landslide."

#4 · SAFE

Mangalam

Called NDA N. Rangasamy

Won NDA ✓ N. Rangasamy

"CM's secondary stronghold. Dual-constituency strategy paid off."

#14 · TOSS-UP HIT

Raj Bhavan

Called SPA Vignesh Kannan

Won SPA ✓ Vignesh Kannan

"Sympathy wave for late leader's son. Models split — we called the right side."

Our top-confidence bucket led the field.

"Safe" calls — the seats we bet hardest on — outperformed every other tier. Toss-ups beat Lean.

Safe5 seats

60%

Toss-up11 seats

55%

Lean14 seats

36%

Every constituency, color-coded. Tap any cell for the predicted vs actual breakdown.

Hit (14)

Miss (16)

Direct Hits

Marquee ✓

NDA Actual

Scenarios

Three honest lessons we're carrying into 2026.

Forecasting credibility comes from owning the misses, not just celebrating the hits. Here's where our model fell short.

Independents. We projected 0 seats for non-aligned candidates. Three won — Kadirkamam, Nedungadu, and Mahé. Our model treated credible Independents as marginal and assumed their vote would split back to mainstream alliances. It didn't.

TVK direct wins. We modeled TVK primarily as a spoiler — splitting opposition vote in 14+ seats. They went further, winning Thirubhuvanai and Manavely outright. Our spoiler model under-weighted Vijay's pull in micro-seats.

SPA in close seats. Six SPA-leaning toss-ups flipped to NDA — Villianur, Kamaraj Nagar, Lawspet, Embalam, Thirunallar, Neravy. The anti-incumbency wave we expected to push these across the line didn't fully materialize. Result: SPA finished below our 11–15 band at 8.

Multi-Model Consensus

Predictions published before polling combined three independent analyses: People's Pulse pre-poll survey (n=2,000, March 16–23, 2026), historical results (2001–2021), candidate profiling via ADR/MyNeta affidavits, alliance coherence scoring, and TVK spoiler-effect modeling. Vote shares reported as weighted averages across models. Competitiveness ratings factored 2021 margins and multi-cornered dynamics. Actual results sourced from the Chief Electoral Officer, Puducherry.

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